Air travel faces turbulence as fuel shortage risks grow in Europe

Air travel in Europe is facing mounting uncertainty as the risk of jet fuel shortages threatens to push up fares and disrupt operations ahead of the busy summer season.

Airports Council International Europe has warned that fuel supply constraints could emerge within weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, raising concerns across the aviation sector.

Fuel supply risks raise alarm

According to reporting by the BBC, the Gulf region accounts for roughly 50% of Europe’s aviation fuel imports, making the Strait of Hormuz a critical supply route. A prolonged disruption could therefore have systemic implications for airlines and airports.

ACI Europe said its members have “increasing concerns” about jet fuel availability, particularly with demand set to rise during the summer tourism season. Smaller airports, with limited storage and supply flexibility, are expected to be the most vulnerable.

Director-general Olivier Jankovec warned in a letter to European commissioners that a sustained disruption could trigger a broader crisis. “A supply crunch would severely disrupt airport operations and air connectivity — with the risk of harsh economic impacts for the communities affected, and for Europe,” he said.

He added that if transit through the Strait does not resume in a stable manner within three weeks, a systemic jet fuel shortage could become a reality for the European Union.

Rising prices and early signs of disruption

Fuel market pressures are already visible. The BBC reported that benchmark European jet fuel prices have surged to $1,838 (£1,387) per tonne, more than double pre-war levels of $831.

Some airlines globally have begun cutting flights and increasing passenger charges in response to rising fuel costs and supply concerns, signalling early adjustments to protect margins.

The knock-on effect for travellers is likely to be gradual but noticeable. Higher fuel costs typically feed into ticket pricing, while supply uncertainty can lead to schedule disruptions and reduced route availability.

Calls for coordinated response

ACI Europe has urged policymakers to take a more active role, warning that reliance on market forces alone may not be sufficient to manage the crisis.

The organisation has called for measures including collective fuel purchasing and temporary easing of import restrictions, alongside stronger monitoring of fuel production and availability across the region.

It also argued that the situation should accelerate investment in sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), noting that conventional jet fuel prices are likely to remain elevated over the medium to long term.

Wider economic implications

The potential disruption extends beyond airlines. Air travel contributes an estimated €851 billion (£741 billion) to European GDP and supports around 14 million jobs, underlining the broader economic stakes.

Airports handling fewer than one million passengers annually are already under financial strain and could face heightened risks if fuel shortages materialise, Jankovec said.

A UK government spokesperson told the BBC that airlines have not yet reported supply disruptions and continue to operate normally, but added that authorities are working with carriers to minimise any impact on passengers.

Uncertainty to define the near term

For now, the industry remains in a holding pattern, closely watching developments in the Middle East.

If supply routes stabilise, the impact may be contained. But if disruptions persist, higher fares, tighter capacity and greater unpredictability could define air travel in the months ahead.