Europe may run short of jet fuel by June if Middle East supplies stay blocked

Europe could face a jet fuel shortage within weeks if supplies from the Middle East remain disrupted, raising the risk of higher airfares and potential flight cancellations ahead of the peak summer travel season.

The warning comes from the International Energy Agency, which said in its latest monthly report that fuel stocks may reach a tipping point by June unless Europe can replace at least half of its imports from the Gulf. According to BBC, the agency’s executive director Fatih Birol said the region may have “maybe six weeks of jet fuel left” under current conditions.

Supply shock from the Gulf

The disruption stems from the prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for fuel shipments, following the escalation of conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel. The blockade has sharply reduced exports from the Gulf, which the IEA identified as the largest source of jet fuel to global markets.

Europe has historically relied on the region for around 75 per cent of its jet fuel imports, the agency noted. With those flows curtailed, countries are now seeking alternative supplies from markets such as the United States and Nigeria.

However, the IEA cautioned that even with increased shipments, replacement volumes may fall short. “Physical shortages may emerge at select airports,” the agency said, adding that this could lead to flight cancellations and reduced demand if supply gaps persist.

Airlines brace for higher costs

The impact is already visible in pricing. According to BBC, benchmark European jet fuel prices surged to $1,838 per tonne in early April, more than double pre-conflict levels.

Airlines are absorbing some of the increase but are also passing costs on to passengers. EasyJet said it incurred £25 million in additional fuel expenses in March, despite hedging a significant portion of its fuel needs, while KLM has announced plans to cancel 160 flights in Europe in the coming month due to rising costs.

Fuel typically accounts for 20 to 40 per cent of airline operating expenses, making sustained price increases particularly challenging for carriers.

Uneven impact across airports

Shortages are unlikely to be uniform. Amaar Khan of Argus Media told AP that larger hubs may receive priority supply, while smaller airports could face tighter constraints.

“It’s looking more and more likely that there will be a shortage of some extent in some areas of Europe,” he said, adding that even if Gulf supplies resume, it could take five to six weeks for markets to stabilise.

Industry bodies are already preparing contingency plans. Airports Council International warned European authorities that shortages could emerge if the Hormuz route does not reopen soon, while Airlines for Europe has urged regulators to treat disruption linked to the conflict as “extraordinary circumstances” to ease compensation burdens on carriers.

Governments monitor situation

Despite mounting concerns, officials have sought to reassure markets. A UK government spokesperson told the BBC that authorities are working with suppliers and airlines to ensure continuity, adding that there is no immediate disruption to supply.

Similarly, the European Commission said there is currently “no evidence of fuel shortages” across the bloc, though it acknowledged that near-term risks remain if supply constraints persist.

Weekly coordination meetings between energy and transport officials are underway, with further measures expected if the situation deteriorates.

A fragile outlook for summer travel

The coming weeks will be critical for Europe’s aviation sector. The IEA said that if more than half of lost Gulf supplies cannot be replaced, shortages could begin to appear as early as June. Even in more optimistic scenarios, supply pressures may only ease later in the summer.

For airlines, the uncertainty complicates planning at a time when demand typically peaks. For travellers, it raises the prospect of higher fares, fewer flights and potential disruption during one of the busiest travel periods of the year.