Europe's fuel crisis grounds thousands of flights this summer

Europe's aviation sector is facing its most severe fuel supply crisis since the COVID-19 pandemic. Airlines have already cut 13,000 flights and two million seats in May alone, as the jet fuel shortage linked to the Iran conflict continues to disrupt schedules across the continent.

Since the Iran conflict began in February, the cost of jet fuel has more than doubled, driven in part by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has cut off around a fifth of the world's oil supply.

Lufthansa, British Airways, Ryanair, EasyJet, Turkish Airlines, and KLM are all cutting capacity, and the worst of the summer disruption has not yet arrived.

The supply problem behind the cuts

The numbers indicate the severity. The average demand for jet fuel in Europe is about 1.6 million barrels per day.

Domestic production accounts for 1.1 million barrels. The rest of the 500,000 barrels, three-quarters of which used to come from the Middle East, have now been depleted since the Strait of Hormuz has been virtually closed, following the US-Iran war that started on February 28.

The Middle Eastern jet fuel loss is an acute logistics issue, not a short-term price spike, as cited by analysts at Societe Generale.

Who is cutting and by how much?

The cuts are substantial in all areas. Between now and the end of the summer, Lufthansa has reduced approximately 20,000 short-haul flights from its routes and is one of the hardest hit airlines in Europe.

Ryanair has been forced to cancel hundreds of flights in May due to "significant increases in fuel prices," especially on flights within Europe.

EasyJet's network is also being ravaged by significant disruption. Similar reductions in capacity have been made by British Airways and KLM, with some smaller planes replacing the larger ones.

A crisis that can't be solved overnight

IATA has made no sign of changing its year-end European capacity forecast at this point, although the trend is obvious.

The European Commission has admitted the possibility of a response across the bloc if the Strait of Hormuz is kept shut after May, to cope with dwindling fuel reserves. In good health, Europe's airlines started 2026, having been forecast to post a combined net profit of $14 billion for the year by IATA.

That prediction is now facing serious challenges. The fuel crisis is no longer a risk scenario, as 13,000 flights have already been canceled (and 2 million seats sold out, too); for months, Europe's airlines will be operating as they have always done.